How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost four-year war in the region have been put on hold.

Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The frequently changing meeting is another twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.

The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded little tangible outcome.

Putin may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.

So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

Jennifer Osborn
Jennifer Osborn

A passionate game developer and educator with over a decade of experience in creating immersive digital experiences.