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Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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